Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Pulmonx expects acceleration in U.S. growth in the second half of 2025 due to scaling of pilot initiatives and marketing efforts started in 2024, including LungTrax and other initiatives. These efforts are anticipated to overcome the normal seasonality and drive growth.
- The LungTrax platform is showing promising results in identifying new patients, with positive feedback from pilot customers. The company plans to roll it out more broadly in Q2 2025, which could drive increased utilization and growth in the back half of the year.
- Strong international growth, with international revenue increasing 42% year-over-year in Q4 2024, and management expects continued strong growth in international markets during the first half of 2025.
- Pulmonx is guiding for a revenue growth of 17% at the midpoint in 2025, which is below its long-term target of 20% growth, indicating potential slowing of growth momentum.
- Operating expenses are expected to increase by approximately $14 million in 2025, nearly matching the incremental revenue of $13 million, suggesting limited operating leverage and raising concerns about profitability improvements.
- The company does not expect to maintain the strong international growth rates experienced in 2024, anticipating a deceleration of OUS (Outside the U.S.) growth in 2025, which may impact overall revenue growth.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +23% (from $19.28M to $23.78M) | Total revenue increased by 23% YoY, largely driven by enhanced market demand and adoption, which builds on the previous period’s momentum. This improvement suggests that underlying business factors—such as increased procedure volumes and product acceptance—remained strong, supporting continued revenue acceleration. |
United States Revenue | +16% (from $13.72M to $15.91M) | U.S. revenue grew by 16% YoY, now representing about 67% of overall revenue. This boost reflects sustained effective commercialization initiatives and market penetration in the U.S., following a strong performance in Q4 2023 that seeded further growth. |
Earnings Per Share | 8% improvement (from –$0.36 to –$0.33) | EPS improved from –$0.36 to –$0.33, indicating better cost management and revenue growth relative to the previous period. The modest improvement reflects efforts to optimize operating performance even though the company remains in a net loss position. |
Operating Income | Loss narrowed (from –$13,919 to –$13,417) | Operating loss was reduced slightly as higher revenue and gross profit partially offset operating costs. The moderation in expense growth, compared to the previous period’s higher losses, reveals increased efficiency and cost optimization measures taken during Q4 2024. |
Net Income | 5% improvement (from –$13,888 to –$13,175) | Net loss improved by approximately 5% YoY, driven by increased revenue and improved operating leverage. Despite remaining unprofitable, the narrower gap suggests that revenue gains and tighter expense controls have started to positively impact the bottom line compared to Q4 2023. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Revenue | FY 2024 | $81 million to $84 million | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Gross Margin | FY 2024 | 74% | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Operating Expenses | FY 2024 | $122 million to $124 million, including ~$22M non‐cash stock‑based comp | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Operating Expense Growth | FY 2024 | 9% | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Revenue | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $96 million to $98 million | no prior guidance |
Revenue Growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 16% to 18% | no prior guidance |
Gross Margin | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 74% | no prior guidance |
Operating Expenses | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $133 million to $135 million, including ~$22M non‑cash stock‑based comp | no prior guidance |
Foreign Exchange Impact | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | negative impact of approximately 100 basis points | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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U.S. Market Growth and Expansion | Positive revenue increases and account expansion were consistently highlighted in Q1 ($12.9M, 38% growth ), Q2 (26% growth and 17 new U.S. accounts ), and Q3 (17% growth with 15 new accounts ). | Q4 demonstrates robust growth with U.S. revenue at $15.9M (16% increase), expanded account base (283 active accounts), and the introduction of a TV commercial and enhanced digital patient engagement. | Consistent strong growth with an added focus on direct-to-patient advertising and innovative marketing channels. |
International Market Growth and Deceleration Concerns | In Q1 to Q3, international revenue was noted for steady percentage increases (e.g., 12–15% growth in Q3 ) and growth driven by strategic expansion in Europe and China, though with early mentions of seasonality or slower growth in some regions. | Q4 reports international revenue of $7.9M in the quarter (42% YoY growth) and emphasizes robust full‐year performance, while also noting expected seasonality in the second half and potential deceleration concerns. | Stable international growth continues but with a cautious tone regarding seasonal deceleration, especially later in the year. |
LungTrax Platform and Workflow Automation | First introduced in Q2 with pilot programs (LungTrax Connect enabling automated CT uploads and workflow tracking ) and further detailed in Q3 with additional pilots and early customer interest. | Q4 further advances the LungTrax platform with pilots for both LungTrax Detect and Connect, demonstrating promising technical milestones (e.g. patient identification from CT scans) and setting the stage for broader rollout in 2025. | Evolving from early pilot phases to broader implementation plans, indicating growing strategic emphasis on automation to boost efficiency. |
Clinical Trials Progression and Limited Innovation Pipeline | Across Q1–Q3, there was steady coverage of the CONVERT I/II trials, AeriSeal progress, Japanese post‐market studies, and supporting data (including LIBERATE and pivotal trial enrollment). | Q4 continues to focus on clinical trial progression with the AeriSeal CONVERT 2 trial and Japanese study while also reiterating a limited innovation pipeline that prioritizes sustaining improvements (e.g. LungTrax and procedural optimizations). | Consistent focus on clinical trials and gradual innovation; while the pipeline remains “limited,” the emphasis on key trials and sustaining innovations has been maintained. |
Sales, Marketing, and Customer Engagement Initiatives | Q1 highlighted account expansion, operational improvements, and education programs. Q2 and Q3 built on these with digital outreach, pilot programs, and international sales tool adaptation (e.g. CME courses and targeted outreach ). | Q4 emphasizes a more aggressive direct-to-patient strategy including a TV commercial, increased digital engagement (135% increase in online followers), and refined sales-force structure to improve patient acquisition and physician education. | Continued multi-pronged engagement, with a shift toward enhanced digital and direct-to-patient marketing, reflecting evolving strategies to boost market penetration. |
Seasonality Impacts on Revenue | Seasonality was discussed in Q2 and Q3 (e.g., typical impacts in Europe, mixed U.S. performance, and historical trends ; Q3 noted pronounced impacts but also expected rebound in Q4 ). | Q4 acknowledges inconsistent U.S. seasonality with initiatives underway to normalize Q3 variability, while expecting typical seasonal effects internationally, yet optimistic about an acceleration in the latter half. | A recurring challenge that remains a concern; although efforts appear to be underway to mitigate its effects, the sentiment is cautiously optimistic about improvements in future quarters. |
Operating Expenses, Profitability, and Revenue Guidance Challenges | Q1–Q3 discussions consistently noted modest increases in operating expenses (e.g., 6% increase in Q1 , 6% in Q2 , and 3–9% in Q3 ), improvement in net losses and adjusted EBITDA, and maintenance of revenue guidance despite external factors. | Q4 continues this discussion with operating expenses up 9% in the quarter, improvements in net loss and adjusted EBITDA, and cautious revenue guidance for 2025 due to the time needed to scale recent initiatives and headwinds impacting growth. | Consistent focus on cost management and profitability improvements; however, challenges persist in meeting long-term revenue growth targets, with a generally cautious tone about future revenue guidance. |
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2025 Growth Guidance
Q: Why is 2025 growth guidance below long-term 20%?
A: We provided a 17% growth guidance for 2025, which we believe is credible given the time needed to roll out our programs and get patients through the system. We expect to see a pickup in the latter half of 2025, especially in the U.S.. In 2026, we anticipate tailwinds from our Japanese post-approval study completion and the AeriSeal OUS launch, moving towards an AeriSeal launch in 2027. We have several growth drivers in place but wanted to be reasonable with our guidance in the first half of the year. -
International Sales Growth
Q: Can you elaborate on strong international sales in Q4?
A: We experienced significant growth in our international markets in Q4, with strong performances in Europe and China. Our China distributor placed a recurring order, reflecting their success with additional sales reps and new accounts. While we don't expect the same growth rate in 2025 as in 2024, we anticipate continued predictable growth in our international markets, including China. -
Gross Margin Outlook
Q: Is there room for gross margins to expand beyond 74%-75%?
A: Gross margins are influenced by production, geographic mix, and cost optimization initiatives. The U.S. has slightly higher gross margins than international, so margins may fluctuate. Our guidance is 74% for the year, but it should trend up over time, especially in the second half. Over the longer term, we expect gross margins to increase due to higher production volumes, favorable geographic mix, and cost reduction initiatives. Additionally, as we increase production volumes, we'll gain leverage on overhead associated with our manufacturing operations. -
Operating Leverage
Q: Why aren't we seeing more operating leverage in 2025?
A: At the midpoint, revenue is expected to grow 17%, while expenses are projected to grow 12%, so we are driving leverage as revenues grow faster than expenses. We are investing in clinical trials, including the CONVERT study and the Japan post-approval study. As enrollment ramps up, R&D expenses will increase. We will continue to gain leverage on SG&A, which will grow less than revenue. -
U.S. Seasonality and Growth
Q: Will growth initiatives offset U.S. seasonality in Q3?
A: We believe our initiatives may help normalize Q3 revenue seasonality in the U.S., but we'll have to wait and see. We expect acceleration in the second half of the year due to initiatives implemented in the first half, including LungTrax and other marketing efforts. In 2024, we identified growth drivers such as direct-to-patient advertising, R&D innovation, and sales force changes, which should drive growth in the back half of 2025. -
Measuring Investments
Q: How are you measuring effectiveness of investments?
A: For direct-to-patient advertising, we track patient acquisition through our website and monitor their progress through the funnel. We are hiring 7 therapy awareness specialists to engage COPD community physicians and will measure their efficiency in sending in StratX referrals. If successful, we'll continue to invest in these areas. -
Impact of Hospitalizations
Q: Are high hospitalizations affecting procedures in Q1?
A: We haven't seen much effect from high hospitalizations due to flu and respiratory season. Pulmonologists are spending a lot of time with these patients, and it hasn't become a key issue. It could even be an opportunity to identify additional patients who might have gone undetected. -
LungTrax Pilot Update
Q: Can you update on the LungTrax pilot program?
A: Customers in our pilot appreciate being able to passively find new patients, and the integrations and interface have received positive feedback. Initial scans are in line with data presented at CHEST, with 10%-15% of patients identified with radiographic emphysema. We're rolling out LungTrax to the sales force and plan to bring on more accounts in the second quarter, aiming for results in the back half of the year.