Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

PC

Pulmonx Corp (LUNG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered record revenue of $23.8M (+23% YoY) with U.S. at $15.9M (+16% YoY) and International at $7.9M (+42% YoY); gross margin was 74% and EPS improved to $(0.33) from $(0.36) YoY .
  • Full-year 2024 revenue was $83.8M (+22% YoY), with gross margin 74% and net loss improving to $(56.4)M; cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $101.5M at year-end .
  • 2025 guidance: revenue $96–$98M (+15–17% reported, +16–18% constant currency), gross margin ~74%, OpEx $133–$135M (incl. ~$22M SBC). Management expects U.S. growth re-acceleration in H2 as LungTraX pilots and awareness initiatives scale, and strong OUS growth in H1 with typical seasonality thereafter .
  • Catalysts: scaling LungTraX (Detect/Connect) to automate patient identification and workflow, expanding international distribution (Europe, China), and advancing AeriSeal (CONVERT II trial) to expand addressable patients by ~20% over time .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record quarterly and annual revenue with broad-based strength; International grew 42% YoY on strong Europe and recurring China orders. “Our record quarterly and full year results underscore the continued success of our focused strategy…” — CEO Steve Williamson .
  • Commercial execution and account expansion: 11 new U.S. treatment centers in Q4; 283 active accounts exiting Q4; patient/physician awareness initiatives and first TV campaign reached >11M people .
  • Workflow/technology progress: LungTraX pilots installed and first detected patient treated; early site feedback aligned with CHEST data showing 10–15% detection of radiographic emphysema among chest CTs .

What Went Wrong

  • Operating expenses rose 9% YoY in Q4 to $31.0M on higher commercial and clinical spend; adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $(7.5)M, despite YoY improvement .
  • Gross margin held at 74% (down vs 75% in Q4 2023), impacted by geographic mix; management expects modest improvement in H2 2025 but near-term remains ~74% .
  • Estimates comparison unavailable: S&P Global consensus data could not be retrieved due to request limit; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs Street for Q4 (unavailable from S&P Global).

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance vs Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$20.783 $20.387 $23.765
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$15.307 $15.026 $17.590
Gross Margin (%)74% 74% 74%
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(15.326) $(14.144) $(13.175)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)$(0.39) $(0.36) $(0.33)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(7.620) $(8.115) $(7.523)

Q4 2024 YoY Comparison

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024YoY Change
Revenue ($USD Millions)$19.278 $23.765 +23.3%
U.S. Revenue ($USD Millions)$13.720 $15.879 +15.7%
International Revenue ($USD Millions)$5.558 $7.886 +41.9%
Gross Margin (%)75% 74% -100 bps
EPS ($)$(0.36) $(0.33) Improved

Segment Revenue Breakdown

Segment ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
United States$13.881 $13.836 $15.879
International$6.902 $6.551 $7.886
Total$20.783 $20.387 $23.765

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
New U.S. Zephyr Valve Centers Added17 15 11
Active Accounts (U.S.)267 280 283
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$114.5 $107.8 $101.5

Actuals vs Wall Street Estimates (Q4 2024)

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$23.765 Unavailable (S&P Global daily limit exceeded)N/A
EPS ($)$(0.33) Unavailable (S&P Global daily limit exceeded)N/A

Note: Estimates unavailable; comparisons to consensus could not be completed. Values typically sourced from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$96–$98 (+15–17% reported; +16–18% constant currency; ~100 bps FX headwind) New
Gross Margin (%)FY 2025N/A~74% (trending higher in H2 2025) New
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$133–$135 (incl. ~$22 SBC) New
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024 (as of Oct 30)$81–$84 Actual $83.8 Achieved
Gross Margin (%)FY 2024 (as of Oct 30)~74% Actual 74% Achieved
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)FY 2024 (as of Jul 31)$127–$129 (incl. ~$25 SBC) $122–$124 (incl. ~$22 SBC) Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Q-2)Q3 2024 (Q-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
AI/Technology – LungTraX (Connect/Detect)Announced upcoming pilot for PACS-integrated CT upload and workflow tracking Pilots planned at select centers; aim to streamline identification/workup Pilots installed; first patient treated detected via LungTraX; feedback aligns with CHEST detection rates Accelerating
Patient/Physician Awareness20,000 patient engagements H1; CME and peer education ramp Continued CME/peer-to-peer; international adaptation of U.S. tools First TV campaign reached >11M; ~1/3 of treated patients started via website; therapy awareness specialists hiring Strengthening
Supply Chain/Inflation/TariffsN/AN/A~9 months inventory; monitoring tariffs; inflation built into plans Stable
Product Performance/Procedural ToolsWorkflow bottlenecks addressed; LungTraX to reduce friction Continued best-practice sharing; seasonality commentary New Chartis precision catheter launched to improve ease-of-use/outcomes Improving
Regional Trends (OUS)OUS +12% YoY; Europe adapting U.S. playbook; new China distributor OUS +12% YoY; bullish on OUS; UK lung health checks supportive OUS +42% YoY; strong Europe and China recurring orders; expect strong H1 2025 then seasonality Strong but seasonal
Regulatory/Clinical – AeriSeal (CONVERT) & JapanFirst U.S. case in CONVERT II; OUS launch ~2026; U.S. ~2027 Expanded CONVERT II enrollment; LIBERATE long-term data Continued ramp; 77.6% CV conversion and 89% TLVR ≥350ml post-valve among converted patients Progressing
R&D ExecutionSoftware impairment tied to margin improvement initiative Continued product/clinical publications; LungTraX pilot Continued investment; gross margin optimization; clinical trial ramp (CONVERT II, Japan) Ongoing

Management Commentary

  • “Our record quarterly and full year results underscore the continued success of our focused strategy and execution… raising awareness among both patients and referring physicians.” — Steve Williamson, CEO .
  • On LungTraX pilot progress: “We installed and tested the system… and by late January, had seen the first patient treated with Zephyr Valves… early positive feedback… similar to the data that came out at CHEST” .
  • On growth cadence: “We plan to scale these initiatives in the first half of 2025 and expect a reacceleration of growth for the U.S. in the second half of the year… foresee strong OUS growth during the first half of 2025 and expect typical seasonality in the latter half” — CFO Mehul Joshi .
  • On margin drivers: “We expect gross margins… ~74%, trending higher in the second half of the year… driven by higher production volumes, geographic mix and cost optimization initiatives” — CFO .
  • On strategic formula: “Acquire, test, and treat… unlocking this $12B market opportunity… focused on physician adoption, patient engagement, workflow automation, new indications and geographic expansion” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • 2025 growth cadence: OUS strong in H1 with typical Q3 seasonality; U.S. growth expected to accelerate in H2 as pilots scale .
  • LungTraX learnings: PACS integration working; detection rates consistent with CHEST 10–15%; broadening CT sources affects detection yield; rollout expanding in Q2 with results in H2 .
  • OUS dynamics: Broad-based strength with recurring China orders; no unusual stocking; expect continued but more predictable growth rather than 2024’s outsized rate .
  • Margin trajectory: Mix and production volumes key; ~9 months inventory buffers inflation; long-term margin headroom via scale and Northern California manufacturing overhead leverage .
  • OpEx leverage: 2025 OpEx growth ~12% vs revenue ~17%; higher R&D tied to clinical trial enrollment; SG&A growth below revenue growth .

Estimates Context

  • Consensus estimates for Q4 2024 could not be retrieved due to S&P Global daily request limit; therefore, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus Street for revenue or EPS this quarter (unavailable from S&P Global).
  • Given management’s tone and reported results, Street models may need to reflect: stronger-than-expected International momentum, H2-weighted U.S. acceleration in 2025, and OpEx stepping up for clinical programs while maintaining operating leverage .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong exit to 2024 with record Q4 revenue (+23% YoY) and improved EPS; International growth (+42% YoY) a notable upside driver, supported by Europe and China .
  • 2025 is set up for H1 OUS strength and H2 U.S. acceleration as LungTraX and therapy awareness initiatives scale; model seasonality and back-half weighting accordingly .
  • Gross margin near-term anchored ~74% with potential improvement in H2 2025 via mix and volume; longer-term leverage from manufacturing overhead scale .
  • Commercial flywheel strengthening: account additions (283 active), patient/physician awareness (TV, web funnel), and workflow automation (LungTraX) should drive volumes and reduce friction .
  • AeriSeal remains a medium-term market expansion catalyst (OUS launch ~2026; U.S. ~2027), potentially increasing eligible patient pool by ~20% globally; watch trial enrollment cadence and regulatory milestones .
  • Cash of $101.5M provides runway to pursue growth and clinical programs, with management reiterating confidence in achieving cash flow breakeven with cash on hand .
  • Trading lens: Near-term stock catalysts likely tied to LungTraX customer rollouts, OUS strength confirmations in H1, and visibility on H2 U.S. reacceleration; medium-term upside from AeriSeal and Japan progress .